October 28, 1996

State Department relies on economist's book about the Middle East

Economist Alan Richards says his book A Political Economy of the Middle East began as a strictly academic project, but it's now required reading for some U.S. State Department employees and for the staff of several foreign governments, as well.

The book, coauthored with John Waterbury of Princeton University and now in its second edition, examines the interaction of politics and economics in the Middle East and seeks to put the Middle East in a comparative context, comparing it to regions such as Latin America and East Asia, which had not been done before, notes Richards.

"Because there's so much violence and day-to-day crisis in the Middle East, everybody's focus is on those things," says Richards. "Few have looked at economic development, demographic changes, changes in women's education, etc. How important are these deeper shifts? The answer is very important, indeed."

The authors had two goals when they wrote the book, which was first published in 1990: They wanted their colleagues outside of academia to use it, including those in the U.S. government, foreign governments, and organizations like the World Bank, and they wanted the book to be used as a text in upper-division and graduate courses. Both goals have been met, says Richards.

"State Department people have to read this," he says. "Officers at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey read it. It's in use at Israeli universities, and I've heard that the University of Moscow uses it, which is a well-known training ground for the KGB." With 8,000 copies sold, the first edition is something of an academic best-seller, notes Richards. Undergraduate Ed Guerra provided research assistance on the second edition.

Richards took a leave from UCSC in 1992-94 to work in Washington, D.C., providing policy analysis on the region for the U.S. Agency for International Development. "I saw my role as educating American government bureaucrats about the Middle East, even if what I said conflicted with government policy," says Richards. "But that's the role of academics, isn't it? Speaking truth to power."

Among the most striking trends in the Middle East are a soaring population, which is expected to double in the next 27 years, and dramatically increasing literacy rates, particularly among women.

"The population numbers are scary, because they will mean high levels of unemployment, poverty, and a lot of social stress," says Richards. "But education is a different story. In Egypt now, nearly all girls are enrolled in primary school. The same is true in Iran. What will happen socially and politically when most of the women in the Arab world can read and write? Nobody knows because it has never happened before."

U.S. aid programs have emphasized education in some countries, but the trend represents mainly an internal shift.

"The region has oil, of course. However, not all countries have it, and even oil isn't going to bail out these countries anymore," says Richards. "There's growing recognition that investing in human capital and basic education makes sense for economic growth and development. And there's a philosophical desire to join the modern world, as well. The trouble is, political systems block many of the reforms needed to create jobs for the growing numbers of kids who want them. The economic future of the region is precarious."

--Jennifer McNulty