March 24, 1995 Contact: Pamela Donegan or Robert Irion (408/459-2495)

UC SANTA CRUZ ECONOMISTS LOOK TO THE FUTURE OF WIND POWER

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

SANTA CRUZ, CA--Using a computer program that any IBM or Macintosh can run, economists at the University of California, Santa Cruz, have projected a rosy future for wind power in California.

They calculate that within the next 50 years, the price of wind energy will be almost as low as that of energy from gas-fired generators. Also, because fossil-fuel shortages are likely in the coming century, the researchers believe that wind power ultimately will take over 8 to 18 percent of the energy market in the state. Californians now use wind-driven generators for 2 to 3 percent of their energy needs--about enough to run all the lights and appliances in the city of San Francisco.

The wind-power model is the work of Ph.D. student James Hay, research associate George Hoffman, and professor of economics Nirvikar Singh. The team completed its calculations recently with the aid of a grant from the University of California Energy Institute, a nine-campus research group founded in 1980.

Three main prognostications contributed to the model's optimistic forecast for wind energy: future mass-produced machinery will cost less; new wind turbines will be better and faster; and manufacturers and managers of wind-power operations will really get the knack of it over time. These projections are grounded in real-world examples like the semiconductor industry, which took off once the demand for products fueled the fire of manufacturing. "Wind power is still somewhat of an infant industry," says Hoffman, "but we're on the threshold of a change."

Power from the wind is not a new idea. The Persians employed breeze-driven grain mills around 1500 b.c. However, until recently, windmills were relatively rare and solitary beasts, garnering more attention for their scenic value than for their energy potential. Attitudes changed during the energy crunch of 1973. Suddenly, utility companies jumped to find alternatives to endangered oil and gas. Even so, wind power stood like a neglected debutante on the sidelines of the energy scene. "Wind energy was looked at as something weird and way out--a California thing," says Singh. "Now that stigma is disappearing."

Wind energy offers several advantages over more traditional power sources. Most importantly, it is renewable. Fossil fuels are millions of years in the making, and they're gone with the flash of a stove burner or the turn of a car key. Wind blows every day of the year. Also, there are no toxic side effects. Hoffman contrasts this with the fearful dangers of nuclear power: "Wind energy lacks that potential for mass disaster," he says. Hoffman also points out that wind power is "a more flexible technology." As he says: "You can install one turbine at a time instead of a power plant at a time. It's months versus years."

But even wind has its costs. Most people think the huge spindly propellers and iron skeletons of modern turbines are a blot on the landscape. Turbines often come in phalanxes of several thousand, as at Altamont Pass near Livermore, so they can hardly be overlooked. And, if humans find them ugly, birds find them deadly. Hundreds of eagles, hawks, and kestrels fly into whirring turbine blades every year. Researchers at UC Davis are now working out ways to cut down on the death toll using noisemakers on the towers and orange stripes on the propellers.

Despite these costs, the UCSC team stands by wind power as a feasible and benevolent source of energy. They believe that power companies will become increasingly interested in it, because "for them, it is like an insurance policy," says Singh. When other sources of energy dwindle, wind will always be around.

"There is a lot of wind potential out there," says Joseph Hughes, a senior research associate at Pacific Gas and Electric, "but it's in a horse race with other types of fuel." He believes it unlikely that wind power will take a big share of the market as long as oil and gas prices stay low. The problem with wind, he says, is that it varies from day to day. On the very hottest days in California, when residents are mopping their brows and revving up their air conditioners, wind turbines limp to a halt in the still sultry air. Energy can be stored from brisker, breezier days, but not very efficiently.

According to the new wind-power model, this will be less of a problem with advanced turbine designs. Moreover, if the calculations are correct, fossil fuels will eventually lose the horse race as world supplies run down.

The team at UCSC is not the first to design an economic model for wind power, but they say their work offers a new advantage in that anyone can use it--not just those with a Ph.D. in economic theory. The model uses Microsoft Excel spreadsheet software and can run on any personal computer. "We've got something accessible here," says Singh. The researchers plan to make diskettes available to others in the field.

The other benefit of their computer projection, Singh says, is that researchers can update it every year with current data, thus making it responsive to economic ebbs and flows. This flexibility should make the model valuable for many years to come.

Editor's Note: For further comments, contact George Hoffman at (408) 459-2647 or Nirvikar Singh at (408) 459-4093 or .

This release is also available on UC NewsWire, the University of California's electronic news service. To access by modem, dial (209) 244-6971.

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