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March 22, 1999
Sociologist Paul Lubeck is "cautiously optimistic" about the future of Nigeria following last month's national elections.
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Lubeck, an expert on Nigeria, witnessed the elections firsthand as part of a 60-member delegation of international observers. The elections followed 16 years of military rule in one of Africa's most populous countries.
Though marred by massive voter fraud and corruption in some parts of the country, the elections nevertheless mark an important turning point in a country that has seen per capita incomes plunge by 80 percent since the early 1980s, said Lubeck.
"About one in five sub-Saharan Africans is a Nigerian, and the country is in the midst of economic collapse following a series of military coups and declining revenues from petroleum sales, so it was very important to have successful elections," said Lubeck. "The military had become very unpopular."
The elections follow the death last June of Sani Abacha, who took power in November 1993. Abacha's dictatorship followed the annulment of the election five months earlier of Moshood Abiola, the country's first democratically elected president. Imprisoned by the military and never allowed to take office, Abiola died suddenly as he was being interviewed by American diplomats last spring.
Under Abacha, Nigeria plummeted into a nation riddled with unprecedented repression and corruption. Historically, Nigeria has been dominated by Muslim police and military officers from the north who looted the public treasury, killed members of resistance groups, harassed and terrorized the citizenry, and destroyed democratic traditions like newspapers, trade unions, professional associations, and universities. About half of the nation's 110 million people are Muslim, and the population encompasses more than 250 different ethnic groups. Rich in petroleum and natural gas, Nigeria supplies about 8 percent of American oil imports.
Pressure to hold the elections grew internally after Abacha's death and was aided by Nigeria's international isolation, pressure from human rights groups, and the African American community. The United States invoked sanctions against the country for drug running, human rights abuses, and the military's resistance to making the transition to civilian rule.
The military managed the transition to civilian rule, approving three political parties and establishing a four-month timetable for local, state, federal, and presidential elections. Nigeria has an American-style constitution, and Lubeck witnessed the federal legislative and presidential elections, which were held February 20 and 27, respectively.
"There was very little time to articulate issues, but virtually everyone wanted civilian rule," said Lubeck. He joined the delegation at the request of the Carter Presidential Center in Atlanta, which formed the delegation jointly with the National Democratic Institute. Other delegates included Jimmy Carter and Colin Powell.
Olusegun Obasanjo, a former Army general, was elected president as leader of the People's Democratic Party. Even though the election was marred by voter fraud, Lubeck called Obasanjo "probably the best choice in a series of cruel choices." Obasanjo is the only military leader who ever gave up power for a civilian government, stepping aside in 1979. He was imprisoned for three years under Abacha.
Obasanjo's party was the best organized, best funded, and enjoyed the highest level of military support, noted Lubeck.
"But the big achievement here is the suspension of authoritarian repression of civil liberties, trade unions, and civil society groups. Abacha had a horrible human rights record," said Lubeck, adding that just one year ago, Nigeria was on the verge of civil war.
Almost all political prisoners have been released, and the country appears to be headed in the right direction, said Lubeck. "What they need is stability and sufficient economic growth to provide the social basis for democracy," he noted. "The future will depend to a great degree on the capacity of Obasanjo to bring aggrieved people into the government and to give greater autonomy to the regions."